Renewable energy is an opportunity to plan for
November 3, 2009
By INGI SALGADO
If one acknowledges what the bulk of the world's scientists say about global warming, then the earth inherited by our grandchildren is likely to be very different, in part unrecognisable, from the earth today.
The insurance industry already has to contend with a rise in natural disasters - and higher concentrations of carbon in the atmosphere will increase the occurrence of extreme weather events in the future.
The world will have no choice but to adapt to these changes. Simultaneously, the shift to a low-carbon and eventually zero-carbon energy base is inevitable. The implications for global trade, financial systems, multilateral relations and sociopolitical dispensations are almost too vast to grasp.
The task of peering into the future is somewhat blurry because of unknowns, not least the extent of political will to cut greenhouse gas emissions, technologies that have yet to be developed or commercialised, and the range of climate effects.
But there are some things of which we can be sure. One certainty is that regions with resources more suited to low-carbon growth are likely to play a more significant role in a new world order.
Should electric vehicles become the next big thing after the internal combustion engine, then the unavoidable shift away from oil may instead give rise to a dependency on lithium (for the lithium-ion batteries that power these vehicles).
South America holds three-quarters of global lithium reserves. Bolivia alone holds about half of world supplies. Already Japanese, South Korean and Chinese companies are wooing Bolivian President Evo Morales, who appears intent on avoiding the historical errors of countries like our own by insisting on more domestic processing before granting concessions. South Africa has relatively tiny deposits of lithium. Our minerals advantage in a clean-tech future lies rather in platinum group metals, which are used to make fuel cells. If the world turns to nuclear, then demand for our uranium deposits would kick in.
These, of course, are not renewable forms of energy because they require feedstock. One of the great things about truly renewable forms of energy is that they are freely available - although there may be individuals who seek to exert control over aspects of energy production using these resources, which, after all, require land, equipment and production licences. Nevertheless, removing the feedstock requirement is a massive boon because energy is then more affordable and countries become less vulnerable to external market shocks.
The big question for our policymakers is the extent to which they are preparing for this new world. We know renewable energy is more jobs-intensive than fossil fuels and it is a no-brainer for a sun-drenched country with huge unemployment to make this shift.
But South Africa needs a plan to manage the process of shedding coal-related jobs as others come on stream, to ensure that entire communities dependent on coal mining are not hung out and left to dry, and that our workforce is sufficiently skilled to embrace a solar-powered future.
The full extent of the intervention required to mitigate and adapt to global warming is mind-boggling.
We need to be asking how to maximise food security in spite of a massive looming water deficit. We need to prepare for the encroachment of malaria towards urban areas. We need to ask tough questions like whether Koeberg nuclear station is equipped for sea-level rise.
These are compelling reasons to set aside political differences and get national planning off the ground as soon as possible.
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